{"id":12936,"date":"2024-06-02T06:00:41","date_gmt":"2024-06-02T11:00:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legaltalktexas.hammerle.com\/?p=12936"},"modified":"2025-06-18T12:29:47","modified_gmt":"2025-06-18T17:29:47","slug":"social-security-scare","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hammerle.com\/legaltalk\/estate-planning\/social-security-scare\/","title":{"rendered":"Social Security Scare: Trustee Report Projects a Benefit Cut in 2033"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">On May 6, 2024, Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen co-authored a letter alerting Congress that the <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ssa.gov\/oact\/trsum\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">OASI Trust Fund reserves<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> will be depleted in 2033 and Social Security retirement benefits will be payable at 79% instead of 100%.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Unless, of course, Congress follows the letter\u2019s recommendations and increases payroll taxes, cuts benefits, or both.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Understanding the Federal Employees\u2019 Retirement System<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Janet Yellen and her three co-trustees manage the Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund. All are federal employees who, if they were hired in 1984, participate in the Federal Employees\u2019 Retirement System (FERS). FERS has 3 prongs:\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Basic Benefit Plan<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Social Security<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Thrift Savings Plan<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Thrift Savings Plan is similar to the private sector\u2019s 401(k), and Social Security is the same for federal and private employees.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The FERS Basic Pension Plan<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">What sets federal employment benefits apart is the FERS Basic Pension plan. It is available for all federal employees \u2013 from Cabinet Secretaries down to rank-and-file employees of the Social Security Administration. It is not available to the private sector. Keep that in mind when a federal employee defends social security. The personal impact is relative.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">For example, with her retirement benefits (either FERS or its predecessor plan), private investments, speaking engagements, and book royalties, the decrease to 79% of her social security payment should not significantly hurt Janet Yellen. She may have a dog in that hunt, but if so, it is a toy poodle.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Important Information from the 2024 Annual Trustee\u2019s Report<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">For the rest of Americans, including other federal employees, a cut of social security benefits to 79% could be devastating.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">To understand the math and assumptions behind Yellen\u2019s letter, take a look at the <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/hammerle.com\/legaltalk\/estate-planning\/annual-trustee-reports\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">2024 Annual Trustee\u2019s report<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. Clocking in at a whopping 277 pages, you will find scintillating tidbits on actuarial estimates, assumptions, and methods underlying those actuarial estimates, and financial operations and legislative changes in 2023. It is a surefire cure for even the most die-hard of insomniacs.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Or you can cheat and skip to the end, starting at the Appendices on page 159. This is where you find the good stuff: tables, history, and estimates.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The OASI Trust and Disability Trust Funding<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">You will learn that the OASI Trust and the Disability Trust are funded primarily by payroll tax contributions, reimbursements from the General Fund of the Treasury, taxes on social security payments, and interest on investments of trust fund income. The annual costs from the funds include <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/hammerle.com\/legaltalk\/legal-talk\/navigating-2024-unveiling-tax-cuts-retirement-realities-medicare-mysteries\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">social security and benefit payments<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, disability payments, and administrative expenses.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">What is an Administrative Expense?\u00a0<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Payroll, the cost of office buildings and related facilities for the Social Security Administration, and information technology systems. While only a small percentage of costs, the 2023 administrative expenses still totaled $7.2 billion for both trusts. Alarmingly, in 2023 administrative expenses increased by $500 million.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">There\u2019s the story; now let\u2019s put it all to music.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">How the Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Operates<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">For most years, OASI operated in the black. (<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ssa.gov\/oact\/TR\/2024\/VI_A_cyoper_hist.html#297482\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Table VI. A4<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">). Things rocked along just fine until 2021 when OASI ran at a deficit. In 2023, OASI was bleeding red to the tune of $41.4 billion. Trust reserves, however, were a healthy $2,673 billion.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Future of OASI<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">What about the future? For that, we turn to <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ssa.gov\/oact\/TR\/2024\/VI_C_SRfyproj.html#306103\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Table VI.C4<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, which estimates operations for the next 10 years using 3 different assumptions: low-cost, intermediate, and high-cost. Low-Cost, the most optimistic, shows assets reserves of $1,350 billion by 2033, Intermediate shows $88.7 billion, and High-Cost shows zero.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Ms. Yellen used the Intermediate set of assumptions in her letter.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Hammerle Morris Law Firm is Here to Answer Your Social Security Questions<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Now what? Read the <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ssa.gov\/oact\/TR\/2024\/index.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">2024 Annual Trustee\u2019s Report<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> and then contact your congressperson. It\u2019s their job to find out which is faulty: the report or the social security system.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If you\u2019re looking for further assistance understanding your social security options, contact the experts at Hammerle Morris Law Firm today to <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/hammerle.com\/lewisville-attorney\/#form\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">schedule a consultation<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Virginia Hammerle is an accredited estate planner and represents clients in estate planning, probate, guardianship, and contested litigation. She may be reached at <\/span><\/i><a href=\"mailto:legaltalktexas@hammerle.com\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">legaltalktexas@hammerle.com<\/span><\/i><\/a><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. This blog contains general information only and does not constitute legal advice.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>On May 6, 2024, Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen co-authored a letter alerting Congress that the OASI Trust Fund reserves will be depleted in 2033 and Social Security retirement benefits will be payable at 79% instead of 100%.\u00a0 Unless, of course, Congress follows the letter\u2019s recommendations and increases payroll taxes, cuts benefits, or both.\u00a0 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":12937,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[1224],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-12936","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-estate-planning"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Social Security Scare | Hammerle Morris Law Firm<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Discover the future of Social Security as Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warns of benefits cut to 79%. 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